The Classification Blind Spot: Why Standard Trade Direction Rules Fail on Polymarket and What Ground-Truth Data Means for Real Algo Design

By Tiger Polymarket Prediction
June 28, 2026

This week paper is “Polymarket-v1 Database” (arXiv:2606.04217, June 2026) by Boka Qin and Rui Yang.

It is not a modeling paper or another agent framework. It is the release of the complete on-chain trade archive for Polymarket’s first-generation CTF Exchange on Polygon (Nov 2022 – Apr 2026), containing 1.20 bill…